Statistical Trend Analysis on Infant Mortality Rate and Estimation of Live Births in Nigeria

Orumie, Ukamaka Cynthia *

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Port Harcourt, Choba, Rivers State, Nigeria.

Inumimonte, David Ennis

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Port Harcourt, Choba, Rivers State, Nigeria.

Samuel Nvene

Department of Data Science, Robert Gordon University , AB107AQ, United Kingdom.

*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.


Abstract

Particularly in nations like Nigeria, the likelihood that a child may pass away before turning one is rather distressing. Infant Mortality Rate is the term used to describe this. Ending all preventable deaths of children under the age of five is goal 3.2 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study's foundation is the statistical analysis of Nigeria's infant mortality rate. The secondary data was gathered from the World Bank Survey, which included annual records of the infant mortality rate in Nigeria over the ten-year period from 2012 to 2021. To assess the trend and estimate the model parameters, Time Series Analysis (TREND) was the statistical method employed. The researchers used the trend to predict for the following ten years. Both the number of infant fatalities and the infant mortality rate are moving decrease, according to the trend study. This demonstrates that the Infant Mortality Rate in Nigeria steadily decreases as the live birth rate rises, yet it is unlikely that it will reach zero or be insignificant by 2032. According to the analysis, the quadratic trend model fits the data sets the best because it has the smallest error margin and an R-square value that is extremely close to 100%. According to the model developed, Nigeria's infant mortality rate is expected to continue to drop throughout the course of the following ten years. Yet, the finding is not striking enough because, in 2031, the infant mortality rate will probably still be higher than 45. Hence, if appropriate measures are not implemented, we will not be able to achieve the goal of eliminating all preventable deaths of children under the age of five and lowering new birth deaths to no more than 12 per thousand. Also, it was seen from the table and graphs that the infant mortality rate decreased more rapidly from 2016 to 2017. This shows that the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which went into effect in 2016, contributed to a decrease in the infant mortality rate.

Keywords: Sustainable development goals, infant mortality rate, quadratic trend model, time series analysis, model parameters


How to Cite

Cynthia, O. U., Ennis, I. D., & Nvene, S. (2023). Statistical Trend Analysis on Infant Mortality Rate and Estimation of Live Births in Nigeria. Asian Journal of Mathematics and Computer Research, 30(1), 33–47. https://doi.org/10.56557/ajomcor/2023/v30i18183

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