AN INTERPLAY OF OIL PRICE VOLATILITY, EXCHANGE RATE AND STOCK RETURNS IN NIGERIA
WILLIAMS ODICHE *
Institution, University of Stavanger, Norway.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
We analyze the interplay of oil price volatility, exchange rate and stock market return in Nigeria using 5-days daily data covering 1985 to 2021. The variables used in the study are oil price and exchange rate volatilities as the independent variables, and stock market return as the dependent variable. The data for the study was obtained from the CBN statistical database; We employed descriptive statistics and VECH GARCH (1,1) model in our estimation. The result of the analysis shows that both the exchange rate and oil price volatility positively and significantly influence the shocks to stock market return in Nigeria. In conclusion, we observed that shocks to stock market return are attributed to oil price volatility and exchange rate volatility. we advocate for the diversification of the Nigerian economy to reduce the impact of oil price volatility on stock market return.
Keywords: Volatility, exchange rate, Garch, Nigeria