Assessing the Relationship between Fluctuating Temperature, Rainfall, and Cereal Productivity in the Vindhyan Zone
Hayam Boboy Singh
*
Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Acharya Narendra Deva University of Agriculture and Technology, Kumarganj, Ayodhya, UP – 224 229, India.
Anil Kumar Singh
Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Acharya Narendra Deva University of Agriculture and Technology, Kumarganj, Ayodhya, UP – 224 229, India.
Sita Ram Mishra
Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Acharya Narendra Deva University of Agriculture and Technology, Kumarganj, Ayodhya, UP – 224 229, India.
Yakhari Awungshi Chihui
Department of Soil Science, School of Agricultural Sciences, Nagaland University, Medziphema, Nagaland – 797 106, India.
Dwipendu Datta
Department of Genetics and Plant Breeding, Dr. Rajendra Prasad Central Agricultural University, Pusa, Samastipur, Bihar – 848 125, India.
Shailendra Kumar
Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Acharya Narendra Deva University of Agriculture and Technology, Kumarganj, Ayodhya, UP – 224 229, India.
Shivam Tripathi
Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Acharya Narendra Deva University of Agriculture and Technology, Kumarganj, Ayodhya, UP – 224 229, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
This study investigates the impacts of agro-climatic fluctuations on principal crops in the Vindhyan Zone of Eastern Uttar Pradesh, a region noted for its subtropical climate and monsoon-dependent agriculture. The background highlights the growing challenges posed by climate change, particularly variability in temperature and rainfall, which can threaten crop productivity and regional food security in the state of Uttar Pradesh; one of the most populated regions in India. minimal long-term trends in temperature, with maximum and minimum annual temperatures showing only slight increases (slopes: +0.0062 and +0.0137, respectively) and generally scattered year-to-year values. Rainfall exhibited moderate annual fluctuation, with an overall rising trend over the study period (slope: +0.5752), especially pronounced during the southwest monsoon. Correlation analysis revealed rice production is weakly influenced by climate variables (Tmax r = +0.32, Tmin r = –0.03, Rainfall r = +0.02), while wheat production showed moderate sensitivity—favouring warm, controlled rainfall conditions (Tmax r = +0.414, Tmin r = +0.146, Rainfall r = –0.174). These findings underscore the necessity for adaptive strategies to manage climatic risks and ensure crop sustainability in Eastern Uttar Pradesh.
Keywords: Climatic variability, agro-climatic zone, yields, vindhyan zone, temperature, rainfall