Journal of Basic and Applied Research International

STOCHASTIC SARIMA MODELS FOR SIMULATING RAINFALL DROUGHT IN SUDAN

HISHAM MOHAMED HASSAN *

Department of Econometrics, University of Khartoum, Faculty of Economics, Sudan.

TARIQ MAHGOUB MOHAMED

Khartoum Technical College, Sudan.

*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

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Abstract

This paper presents linear stochastic models known as multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) used to simulate droughts in Gadaref region, Sudan. The models are applied to simulate droughts using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) series, the results show that the fitted model is adequate  to the SPI_6 for Gadaref station is the SARIMA (0, 0, 5) (1,0,1)₆ model.

Keywords: SARIMA models, stochastic, Sudan

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