REGULATION OF CARBON CYCLE IN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS UNDER GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES: EXPERIMENT OF LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL MODELING
ERLAND G. KOLOMYTS *
Institute of Ecology of the Volga River Basin, Russian Academy of Sciences, 10, Komzina str., Togliatti, 445003, Russia.
LARISA S. SHARAYA
Institute of Ecology of the Volga River Basin, Russian Academy of Sciences, 10, Komzina str., Togliatti, 445003, Russia.
NATALYA A. SUROVA
Institute of Ecology of the Volga River Basin, Russian Academy of Sciences, 10, Komzina str., Togliatti, 445003, Russia.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The strategy of prognostic landscape–ecological studies on climatogenic changes in the biological cycle and carbon balance in forest ecosystems as leading factors of the biotic regulation of the environment is presented. Methods are described for constructing analytical and cartographic empirical statistical models that make it possible to reveal the local mechanisms of biotic regulation and identify the zonal/regional types of forest formations capable of stabilizing the continental biosphere in the changing climate. The prognosis of changes of biotic regulation of the carbon cycle according to the scenarios of forthcoming greenhouse warming and cooling by global HadCM3 and E GISS models accordingly are described.
Keywords: Ecosystem, biogeocenosis, climatic changes, empirical statistical modeling, cartogramming, ecological prediction